Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 11.448935 12.851647 14.432688 16.362010 18.673774 21.381928 24.835298
2025-04-06 9.220276 10.885033 12.904382 15.580023 19.104488 23.698065 30.333631
2025-04-13 7.950519 9.687825 11.896516 14.987651 19.335945 25.461655 35.208246
2025-04-20 7.791055 9.812087 12.512526 16.524852 22.605733 32.000507 48.882006
2025-04-27 7.344162 9.474544 12.427732 17.019971 24.400819 36.704752 61.298774
2025-05-04 6.681218 8.757498 11.707249 16.438753 24.362573 38.319253 68.573111
2025-05-11 6.384029 8.522624 11.648828 16.850946 26.007729 43.285945 84.951718
2025-05-18 5.978481 8.088748 11.239069 16.627657 26.481956 46.118474 97.870369
2025-05-25 5.631992 7.712114 10.877031 16.429060 26.951422 49.047477 112.731784
2025-06-01 5.356855 7.420872 10.619752 16.372495 27.672386 52.716730 132.226890
2025-06-08 5.040422 7.042632 10.188589 15.952899 27.589606 54.494789 146.968589
2025-06-15 4.831355 6.818137 9.990307 15.932429 28.328471 58.518912 173.459165
2025-06-22 4.517287 6.418702 9.488345 15.327596 27.795120 59.323576 189.036000
2025-06-29 4.210719 6.015308 8.954120 14.613148 26.922814 59.022017 200.043309
2025-07-06 3.960344 5.689192 8.530254 14.071354 26.363788 59.491689 216.065877
2025-07-13 4.038018 5.903976 9.060215 15.475815 30.664619 76.500656 361.512657
2025-07-20 3.963686 5.858307 9.120779 15.927147 32.733609 87.501597 508.158995
2025-07-27 3.759972 5.581059 8.739258 15.397280 32.121859 88.406626 564.201922
2025-08-03 3.690956 5.531196 8.773795 15.773126 34.060505 100.458990 818.657140
2025-08-10 3.553339 5.354562 8.557983 15.569569 34.325240 105.691459 1019.930046
2025-08-17 3.427855 5.193091 8.360747 15.388438 34.627676 111.375151 1296.193228
2025-08-24 3.325786 5.068081 8.225595 15.336832 35.318833 119.498483 1770.951074
2025-08-31 3.192407 4.881344 7.959735 14.953825 34.911027 121.797926 2121.328736